The most recent poll to put Trump ahead of Clinton was a mid-May one from the Washington Post and ABC. In the immediate aftermath of his winning a majority of delegates, he was two points ahead of her. Now he is behind, according to the same pollster, by 12. Trump says that the poll includes too many Democrats. Even if he is right about that, though, the poll finds that he is losing support among Republicans. He has dropped eight points among them, to 77 percent. In the last four presidential elections, the Republican nominee–whether he has ultimately won or lost–has gotten at least 90 percent of Republicans’ votes.

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